‘Cyber warfare’ is an immediate danger from Russia, Latvian president warns

Edgars Rinkēvičs: The fact that Ukraine is already fighting for almost three years, it shows that all those assumptions that Ukraine is going to lose, that Ukraine is not capable to fight, they are gone. And I think that indeed it is possible for Ukraine to use both diplomacy and also a military force to get as good a bargaining position as possible when the real political process starts.
Matt Frei: We have an American election in less than two months’ time, and President Zelenskyy hasn’t even been given a meeting with Donald Trump, who’s the other candidate in this election. And we know that Donald Trump is not in favour of continuing with the kind of aid that we’ve had so far, military or financial.
Edgars Rinkēvičs: Yes, American elections are going to be very important. However, I think that, like it or not, still that war is decided in Ukraine by Ukrainians. Indeed, it would be a pity if the support they need would be somehow decreased or stopped.
Matt Frei: Are you worried that if Trump becomes president, it’s not even a question of whether there’s going to be more aid for Ukraine, but that actually Nato itself might cease to exist as we know it?
Edgars Rinkēvičs: We have a lot of doomsday scenarios. We used to have this kind of discussion back in 2016, 2017. And so my country spends around three per cent on defence and we are going to continue this trend.
Matt Frei: What is the right balance between helping Ukraine win this war and not triggering a wider war against Russia itself?
Edgars Rinkēvičs: We know about Russia and we know that normally when they are talking about escalation and instigating some fear, they have some weaknesses. So from that point of view, I don’t see there is a serious risk of further escalation.
Matt Frei: Nato is planning, in the eventuality of a conflict with Russia, how to evacuate wounded Nato soldiers from the frontline, from countries like yours, and I just wonder whether you in Latvia think that a direct confrontation with Russia is something that has now become more probable.
Edgars Rinkēvičs: Nato is a defensive alliance, it should be planning for everything. I think that the better prepared we are, the less likelihood for some kind of direct military confrontation. Frankly, I don’t believe that Russia is going to invade any of Nato’s member states in the observable future. What we are seeing today, and we should be paying attention, is all kinds of hybrid attacks, cyber warfare, subversive activities, disinformation campaigns.
Matt Frei: So not a traditional land invasion, it would be something more complicated, more subtle?
Edgars Rinkēvičs: Absolutely. Look what is happening with Finland or with Latvia, Poland or Lithuania. Russia is now using migration as the hybrid weapon against Finland. Belarus, the proxy of Russia, does the same with us. So from that point of view, where I see immediate danger is this kind of hybrid warfare, which is already ongoing. Here, we should be better prepared.
Matt Frei: But can you ever live in peace next to President Putin as long as he is in power, whatever deal might be made at the end of this conflict in Ukraine?
Edgars Rinkēvičs: I’m sorry, but we have history. Nato was created back in 1949 when Stalin was ruling the Soviet Union and Nato was able to provide peace. We need to forget this kind of attitude we have developed since the 1990s. Let’s look for some kind of political deal. Let’s look for some kind of trade-offs.
I don’t believe that at this point, if we show the weakness, if we talk political stuff and we don’t show the strengths, that it will be very helpful. But yes, I do believe that it is possible for Nato not to engage in war if Nato shows strength.